Objective To establish the transmission dynamics model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, evaluate HIV infection status of men who have sex with men (MSM), and predict HIV epidemic trend of MSM population in Urumqi of Xinjiang in the next decade, so as to provide quantitative basis for formulating appropriate prevention and control measures. Methods Based on HIV surveillance data of MSM population in Urumqi from 2009 to 2017, a dynamic model of HIV transmission was established. Through the model analysis, basic reproductive number R₀ which determined disease spread was obtained, model was numerically simulated with the collected and estimated parameters to analyze the prevalence of HIV among MSM in Urumqi. Results Fitting effect of the established HIV transmission dynamics model for MSM population was rational (mean absolute percentage error[MAPE]=10.89%, root mean square percentage error[RMSPE]=25.74%, basic reproductive number R₀≈0.2616[95%CI:0.2394-0.9299]), model predicted that the HIV positive rate of MSM population in Urumqi would decrease to 2% by 2027. Parametric sensitivity analysis found that the main factors affecting HIV prevalence in MSM population were the proportion of low-risk susceptible persons developing into high-risk susceptible persons, proportion of HIV-infected persons developing into acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients, and proportion of high-risk susceptible persons developing into low-risk susceptible persons. Conclusion HIV infection among MSM population in Urumqi continues to be prevalent, relevant departments should strengthen the prevention and control of MSM population, promote condom use, strengthen publicity, education and other comprehensive intervention measures, so as to control HIV prevalence among MSM population.