个体化预测老年急性心肌梗死患者PCI术后肺部感染风险列线图模型的建立与验证
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阜阳市第二人民医院心内科, 安徽 阜阳 236000

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秦国民  E-mail: 301190611@qq.com

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Establishment and verification of nomogram model for individualized prediction of risk for pulmonary infection in elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention
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Department of Cardiology, Fuyang Second People's Hospital, Fuyang 236000, China

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    摘要:

    目的 建立个体化预测老年急性心肌梗死(AMI)患者经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)术后肺部感染的风险列线图模型, 并验证模型的预测效能。 方法 选取2018年7月-2021年6月于某院行PCI术的215例老年AMI患者作为研究对象, 收集患者临床资料, 分析术后肺部感染病原菌分布情况, 使用单因素、LASSO回归和多因素回归分析PCI术后发生肺部感染的危险因素, 并据此建立列线图风险模型。 结果 39例患者发生肺部感染, 感染发病率18.14%, 培养分离病原菌43株, 其中革兰阴性菌占67.44%。多因素回归分析显示, 年龄≥ 70岁、吸烟、糖尿病、Killip分级Ⅲ~Ⅳ级、气管插管和机械通气是老年AMI患者PCI术后肺部感染的独立危险因素(均P < 0.05)。模型验证结果显示, C-index为0.823;H-L偏差度检验结果差异无统计学意义(χ2=4.122, P=0.537);受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.840(95%CI: 0.805~0.875);在1%~96%范围内, 模型预测净获益值较高, 表明该模型具有良好的预测效能。 结论 年龄≥ 70岁、吸烟、糖尿病、Killip分级Ⅲ~Ⅳ级、气管插管和机械通气与老年AMI患者PCI术后肺部感染相关, 据此构建的列线图模型能有效预测肺部感染发生的风险。

    Abstract:

    Objective To establish nomogram model for individualized prediction of risk for pulmonary infection (PI) in elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and verify the prediction efficiency of the model. Methods 215 elderly AMI patients who underwent PCI in a hospital from July 2018 to June 2021 were selected as the research object, clinical data of patients were collected, distribution of pathogens of post-operative PI was analyzed, risk factors for PI after PCI were conducted univariate, LASSO regression and multivariate regression analysis, and nomogram risk model was established. Results 39 patients had PI, infection rate was 18.14%, 43 pathogenic strains were isolated, 67.44% of which were Gram-negative bacteria. Multivariate regression analysis showed that age ≥70 years, smoking, diabetes mellitus, Killip grade III-IV, tracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors for PI in elderly AMI patients after PCI (all P < 0.05). The model verification results show that C-index was 0.823; there was no significant difference in H-L deviation test results(χ2=4.122, P=0.537); the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.840 (95%CI: 0.805-0.875); the net benefit predicted by the model was high in the range of 1%-96%, indicating that the model has good prediction efficiency. Conclusion Age ≥70 years old, smoking, diabetes mellitus, Killip grade Ⅲ-Ⅳ, tracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation are significantly associated with post-operative PI in elderly AMI patients after PCI, the nomogram model established based on this can be effectively predict the risk for PI.

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陶娜,高伟,秦国民.个体化预测老年急性心肌梗死患者PCI术后肺部感染风险列线图模型的建立与验证[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2022,(3):261-267. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20221900.
Na TAO, Wei GAO, Guo-min QIN. Establishment and verification of nomogram model for individualized prediction of risk for pulmonary infection in elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2022,(3):261-267. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20221900.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-28
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