国家早期预警评分2联合血乳酸预测重症社区获得性肺炎患者短期预后的价值
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作者单位:

1.福建医科大学孟超肝胆医院感染科, 福建 福州 350025;2.福建医科大学孟超肝胆医院药学部, 福建 福州 350025;3.福建医科大学孟超肝胆医院重症医学科, 福建 福州 350025;4.福建医科大学孟超肝胆医院检验科, 福建 福州 350025

作者简介:

通讯作者:

俞晓玲  E-mail: xiaolingyu82@163.com

中图分类号:

R563.1

基金项目:

福建省自然科学基金面上项目(2020J011155);福建省卫生健康中青年骨干人才培养项目(2020GGB047);福建中医药大学校管临床专项资助项目(XB2022017)


Value of National Early Warning Score 2 combined with blood lactic acid in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia
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Affiliation:

1.Department of Infection, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350025, China;2.Department of Pharmacy, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350025, China;3.Department of Critical Care Medicine, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350025, China;4.Department of Laboratory Medicine, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350025, China

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    摘要:

    目的 评估国家早期预警评分2(NEWS2)联合动脉血乳酸水平预测重症社区获得性肺炎(SCAP)患者短期预后的价值。 方法 回顾性收集某三甲医院2017年5月—2022年5月收治的成人SCAP住院患者的中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)、氧合指数、NEWS 2评分及急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ)等资料。根据28天预后分为存活组和死亡组, 比较组间差异, 并分析主要指标的相关性。采用多因素logistic回归分析和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析NEWS2评分、乳酸以及两者联合对SCAP患者死亡风险的预测价值。 结果 共入组97例SCAP患者, 存活65例, 死亡32例, 28天病死率32.99%。与存活组比较, 死亡组患者入院时NEWS2评分、APACHE Ⅱ评分、降钙素原(PCT)、NLR及血乳酸均较高, CD3+ CD4+T淋巴细胞、氧合指数明显降低, 差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。血乳酸与NEWS2评分、APACHE Ⅱ评分均具有较好的相关性(r值分别为0.411、0.709, 均P<0.01)。多因素logistic回归分析显示, NEWS2评分和血乳酸为SCAP患者28天死亡的独立危险因素(OR=1.422, 95%CI: 1.043~1.938;OR=1.635, 95%CI: 1.072~2.492, 均P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示, 与传统指标APACHE Ⅱ评分相比较, NEWS2评分、血乳酸对SCAP患者28天死亡的预测价值良好[曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.740、0.721 VS 0.772, Z值为0.506、1.141, 均P>0.05];当NEWS2评分、血乳酸最佳截断值分别是7分、1.96 mmol/L时, 灵敏度分别为81.3%、68.7%, 特异度分别为63.1%、75.4%。NEWS2评分联合血乳酸显示出更高的预测价值(AUC为0.776 VS 0.772), 并且具有较高的灵敏度(84.4%)和特异度(70.8%)。 结论 入院时NEWS2评分、血乳酸是SCAP患者28天死亡的独立危险因素, 均具有较高的预测价值; NEWS2评分联合血乳酸预测SCAP患者短期预后的价值更高, 优于单个评分。

    Abstract:

    Objective To evaluate the value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) combined with arterial blood lactic acid (Lac) level in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). Methods Data about neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), oxygenation index, NEWS2 as well as acute physiology and chronic health score (APACHE Ⅱ) of adult patients with SCAP admitted to a tertiary first-class hospital from May 2017 to May 2022 were collected retrospectively. According to the 28-day prognosis, patients were divided into survival group and death group. Differences between two groups were compared, and correlation of main indicators were analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were adopted to analyze the predictive value of NEWS2, Lac and their combination on the risk of death in SCAP patients. Results A total of 97 SCAP patients were enrolled, 65 survived and 32 died, with a 28-day mortality of 32.99%. Compared with survival group, NEWS2 score, APACHE Ⅱ score, procalcitonin (PCT), NLR and blood Lac increased significantly in death group, while CD3+CD4+ T lymphocyte and oxygenation index decreased significantly, with significant differences. Blood Lac had a good correlation with NEWS2 and APACHE Ⅱ (r=0.411, 0.709, both P < 0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NEWS2 and blood Lac were independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in SCAP patients (OR=1.422, 95%CI 1.043-1.938; OR=1.635, 95%CI 1.072-2.492, both P < 0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that compared with the traditional APACHE Ⅱ score, NEWS2 and blood Lac had good predictive value for 28-day mortality of SCAP patients (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.740, 0.721 vs 0.772, Z=0.506, 1.141, both P>0.05). When the best cut-off values of NEWS2 and blood Lac were 7 points and 1.96 mmol/L respectively, the sensitivity were 81.3% and 68.7%, the specificity were 63.1% and 75.4% respectively. The combination of NEWS2 and Lac showed higher predictive va-lue (AUC: 0.776 vs 0.772), with higher sensitivity (84.4%) and specificity (70.8%). Conclusion NEWS2 and blood Lac at admission are independent risk factors for the 28-day mortality of SCAP patients, both had high predictive value. NEWS2 combined with blood Lac has higher predictive value in short-term prognosis of SCAP patients than single score.

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杨惠安,俞晓玲,黄水文,等.国家早期预警评分2联合血乳酸预测重症社区获得性肺炎患者短期预后的价值[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2023,(2):200-207. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20233398.
Hui-an YANG, Xiao-ling YU, Shui-wen HUANG, et al. Value of National Early Warning Score 2 combined with blood lactic acid in predicting short-term prognosis of patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2023,(2):200-207. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20233398.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-21
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-28
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