中国肺结核病的季节性特征、循环周期及长短期预测
作者:
作者单位:

1.河北大学统计学系;2.河北大学公共卫生学院

作者简介:

通讯作者:

聂海亮  E-mail: nhlggws@hbu.edu.cn

中图分类号:

R183.3

基金项目:

国家社科基金后期资助项目(22FTJB003)


Seasonal characteristics, cycles, as well as long- and short-term predictions of pulmonary tuberculosis in China
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Department of Statistics, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China;2.School of Public Health, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China

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    摘要:

    目的 分析中国肺结核病的季节性特征和循环周期并进行长短期预测,为防控措施的制定提供依据。 方法 采用CensusX-13季节调整法剖析中国肺结核发病的季节特征,采用Hodrick-Prescott(HP)滤波法分析发病的循环周期,基于分解后的长期趋势采用线性回归模型进行长期预测,采用Holt-Winter季节指数平滑模型进行短期预测。 结果 2010—2021年中国肺结核发病具有明显季节性特征,肺结核报告发病数集中在第二季度,每年3—7月是报告发病高峰期。循环周期大致有6个,周期平均长度为21个月,整体呈现下降的长期趋势,长短期预测效果较好。 结论 应针对肺结核病的季节性特征和循环周期,结合其病理特点,在发病高峰前采取有效的预防控制措施。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics and cycle of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China, make long- and short-term predictions, and provide basis for the formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods The seasonal characteristics of PTB occurrence in China were analyzed by the CensusX-13 seasonal adjustment method. The cycle of PTB occurrence was analyzed by Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering method. Long-term prediction was conducted by the linear regression model based on the decomposed long-term trend, and the short-term prediction was made by Holt-Winter seasonal exponential smoothing model. Results The occurrence of PTB in China from 2010 to 2021 exhibited clear seasonal characteristics, with a concentration of reported cases in the se- cond quarter of each year. The peak period for reported cases was from March to July annually. There were approximately 6 cycles, with an average length of 21 months.Overall, there was a declining long-term trend. The short- and long-term prediction results were good. Conclusion Taking into consideration the seasonal characteristics and cycle of PTB, combined with the pathological features of PTB, effective preventive and control measures should be taken before the peak period of the disease.

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引用本文

刘超,杜柳铭,聂心容,等.中国肺结核病的季节性特征、循环周期及长短期预测[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2023,(7):751-757. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20234107.
Chao LIU, Liu-ming DU, Xin-rong NIE, et al. Seasonal characteristics, cycles, as well as long- and short-term predictions of pulmonary tuberculosis in China[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2023,(7):751-757. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20234107.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-28
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