脑卒中患者医院感染风险预测模型的构建及评价
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R197.323.4

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河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(LHGJ20200681);河南省科技攻关项目(242102311135)


Construction and evaluation of a risk prediction model for healthcare-associated infection in stroke patients
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    摘要:

    目的 构建脑卒中患者医院感染风险预测模型,精准有效的筛选出潜在高危人群,并为其制订针对性预防干预措施,减少感染发生。方法 选取"河南省脑卒中队列"2019—2021年脑卒中患者为研究对象,收集相关临床资料作为主分析数据,用于模型构建及内部验证。随机选取三所从未参与队列构建的医院2022年1—9月脑卒中患者的相关数据,作为测试集,用于风险预测模型的外部验证。将主分析数据随机划分为训练集和测试集,分别基于logistic回归、人工神经网络(ANN)算法、极端梯度提升算法和随机森林算法构建风险预测模型,采用多种指标评价模型预测性能,并基于测试集数据对构建的最优模型进行外部验证。结果 主分析数据中脑卒中患者的感染率为20.6%,测试集数据中脑卒中患者的感染率为56.4%。基于logistic回归构建的风险预测模型的准确度为91.2%,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)为0.938,精确率为0.851,召回率为0.695,特异度为0.968,F1值为0.765。logistic与ANN风险预测模型的准确率、精确率、特异度、AUC均显著优于其他模型,而logistic风险预测模型的召回率、F1分数略优于ANN风险预测模型。logistic风险预测模型在外部验证中仍具有优秀的预测性能。结论 基于logistic回归构建的脑卒中患者医院感染风险预测模型能较好的筛选出具有感染风险的高危脑卒中患者,并有助于为其制订针对性的预防干预措施,以减少感染的发生。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct a risk prediction model for healthcare-associated infection (HAI) in stroke patients, accurately and effectively screen out potential high-risk groups, and formulate targeted preventive interventions to reduce the occurrence of infection. Methods Stroke patients in the "Henan Stroke Cohort" in 2019-2021 were selected as the study objects, and relevant clinical data were collected as the main analysis data for model construction and internal validation. The relevant data of stroke patients in three hospitals that had never participated in the cohort construction from January to September 2022 were randomly selected as a test set for external validation of the risk prediction model. The main analysis data were randomly divided into a training set and a test set, and a risk prediction model was constructed based on logistic regression, artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm, extreme gradient boosting algorithm and random forest algorithm, respectively. Multiple indicators were used to evaluate the prediction performance of the model, and the optimal model was externally validated based on the test set data. Results The infection rate of stroke patients was 20.6% in the main analysis data and 56.4% in the test set data. The accuracy of the risk prediction model based on logistic regression was 91.2%, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.938, the precision rate, recall rate, specificity, and the F1 score were 0.851, 0.695, 0.968, and 0.765, respectively.The accuracy rate, precision rate, specificity and AUC of the logistic risk prediction model and the ANN risk prediction model were all significantly better than other models, while the recall rate and F1 score of the logistic risk prediction model were slightly better than the ANN risk prediction model. The logistic risk prediction model had excellent prediction performance in external validation. Conclusion HAI risk prediction model of stroke patients based on logistic regression can better screen out high-risk stroke patients with infection risk, and can contribute to formulate targeted preventive interventions to reduce the occurrence of infection.

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引用本文

赵明扬,李咏心,李众,等.脑卒中患者医院感染风险预测模型的构建及评价[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2024,23(8):984-992. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20245095.
ZHAO Ming-yang, LI Yong-xin, LI Zhong, et al. Construction and evaluation of a risk prediction model for healthcare-associated infection in stroke patients[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2024,23(8):984-992. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20245095.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-08-23
  • 出版日期: 2024-08-28