基于传播动力学模型的超大型城市新发突发高致病性呼吸道传染病应对策略研究
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R183.3

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国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC2305103)


Response strategies for emerging highly pathogenic respiratory infectious diseases in mega-cities: a study based on transmission dynamics model
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    摘要:

    目的 探索中国超大型城市应对新发突发高致病性呼吸道传染病暴发时不同干预策略的效果,为有效应对新发突发呼吸道传染病提供决策依据。方法 构建易感-潜伏-感染-移出(SEIR)传播动力学模型,参考既往多种新发呼吸道传染病的致病性和传染性参数,并将其进行组合。模拟低、中、高传染性的新发突发高致病性呼吸道传染病在中国1 000万人口超大型城市暴发的场景下,比较实施不同非药物干预措施(NPIs)组合应对暴发后100 d内疫情的发展情况。结果 高致病性新发呼吸道传染病暴发时,如果其传染性较低(R0约为1.5),无需采取严格的NPIs就可以控制疫情。若其传染性为中等(R0约为6),则需要根据其已有的感染规模采取不同强度的NPIs:在初始感染人数为50例时,采取中等强度的NPIs,100 d内可将感染及死亡比例控制在较低水平,病例所需住院床位控制在全国平均储备水平以下;但在已有感染规模超过100例时,则需要采取高强度的NPIs才能控制疫情发展。在其传染性极强(R0约为10)的情况下,无论感染规模如何,应立即采取高强度NPIs才能有效控制疫情发展及感染、死亡规模。结论 在面对新发高致病性呼吸道传染病暴发时,尽早根据其流行病学特征及感染规模采取合适的NPIs,才能最大限度降低其对人群健康的危害。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the effectiveness of different intervention strategies in response to outbreaks of emerging highly pathogenic respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) in mega-city in China, and provide decision-ma-king basis for effective response to emerging RIDs. Methods A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission dynamics model was constructed, referencing to and combining the pathogenicity and infectivity para-meters of previous emerging RIDs. The outbreak of emerging highly pathogenic RIDs with low, moderate, and high infectivity in a mega-city with a population of 10 million in China was simulated, the development of the epidemic within 100 days after implementing different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in response to the outbreak was compared. Results When highly pathogenic RIDs outbreak occurred, and if its infectivity was low (R0 was about 1.5), it was unnecessary to adopt strict NPIs to control epidemic. If its infectivity was moderate (R0 was about 6), different intensities of NPIs were needed based on its existing infection scale. When the initial number of infected cases was 50, moderate-intensity NPIs could keep the infection and death at a low level within 100 days, and the required bed number in hospital for cases could be kept below the national average reserve level. But when the scale of infection exceeded 100 cases, high-intensity NPIs were needed to control the development of the epidemic. In the case of extremely strong infectivity (R0 was about 10), regardless of the scale of infection, only immediate high-intensity NPIs could control the epidemic, infection and death scale. Conclusion In case of outbreaks of highly pathogenic RIDs, adopting appropriate NPIs as early as possible based on their epidemiological characteristics and infection scale is necessary to minimize the harm to the population.

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罗佳瑶,雷志群,闫小龙,等.基于传播动力学模型的超大型城市新发突发高致病性呼吸道传染病应对策略研究[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2024,23(10):1264-1270. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20246200.
LUO Jia-yao, LEI Zhi-qun, YAN Xiao-long, et al. Response strategies for emerging highly pathogenic respiratory infectious diseases in mega-cities: a study based on transmission dynamics model[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2024,23(10):1264-1270. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20246200.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-10-29
  • 出版日期: 2024-10-28