新型冠状病毒疫情防控措施对中国上呼吸道感染疾病负担的影响
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Impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the disease burden of upper respiratory infections in China
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    摘要:

    目的 评估新型冠状病毒感染疫情防控措施对中国上呼吸道感染疾病负担的影响。方法 使用全球疾病负担(GBD) 2021数据库中的年龄标准化发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年率,描述疾病负担并进行疫情暴发前后对比;通过R 4.4.0软件中的移动自回归平均模型预测2022—2024年的疾病负担。结果 1990—2021年中国上呼吸道感染的疾病负担呈波动下降趋势;2018—2019年,年龄标准化发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年率均呈下降趋势。年龄标准化发病率从2019年的137 869.97/10万(95%UI:121 058.04/10万~158 137.76/10万)下降到2020年的137 060.04/10万(95%UI:120 167.04/10万~156 888.93/10万),年龄标准化死亡率分别为0.15/10万(95%UI:0.09/10万~0.40/10万)、0.15/10万(95%UI:0.09/10万~0.38/10万), 年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年率从51.76/10万(95%UI:32.16/10万~77.43/10万)下降到51.44/10万(95%UI:32.19/10万~76.90/10万)。 2021年,上述指标较2020年有所上升,但仍低于2019年的水平。移动自回归平均模型预测,未来3年年龄标准化发病率和伤残调整寿命年率可能呈上升趋势,而年龄标准化死亡率可能呈下降趋势。结论 中国上呼吸道感染的疾病负担呈下降趋势,特别是在新型冠状病毒感染疫情暴发后,上呼吸道感染的疾病负担显著下降。实行"乙类乙管"后,年龄标准化发病率有所回升,体现了疫情防控措施对降低上呼吸道感染疾病负担的良好效果。

    Abstract:

    Objective To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the disease burden of upper respiratory infections (URIs) in China. Methods Age-standardized incidence rate, mortality rate, and di-sability-adjusted life-year rate in Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were used to describe the disease burden and compared before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. The disease burden in 2022-2024 was predicted by the autoregressive integrated moving average model in R 4.4.0 software. Results The disease burden of URIs in China showed a fluctuating downward trend from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life-year rate showed a downward trend from 2018 to 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 137 869.97/100 000 (95%UI: 121 058.04/100 000-158 137.76/100 000) in 2019 to 137 060.04/ 100 000 (95%UI: 120 167.04/100 000-156 888.93/100 000) in 2020. The age-standardized mortality rate were 0.15/100 000 (95%UI: 0.09/100 000-0.40/100 000) and 0.15/100 000 (95%UI: 0.09/100 000-0.38/100 000), respectively. The age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate decreased from 51.76/100 000 (95%UI: 32.16/100 000-77.43/100 000) to 51.44/100 000 (95%UI: 32.19/100 000-76.90/100 000). In 2021, the above-mentioned indicators were higher than those in 2020, but still lower than those in 2019. The autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted that over the next three years, the age-standardized incidence rate and disability-adjusted life-year rate might show an upward trend, and the age-standardized mortality rate was likely to decline. Conclusion The disease burden of URIs in China shows a downward trend, and declines significantly after the outbreak of COVID-19. After COVID-19 being categorized as a class B infectious disease managed with class B measures, the age-standardized incidence rate increases, which reflects the effectiveness of the COVID-19 prevention and control measures on reducing the disease burden of URIs.

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胡娟,唐永忠,李朵朵,等.新型冠状病毒疫情防控措施对中国上呼吸道感染疾病负担的影响[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2025,24(6):830-836. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20257071.
HU Juan, TANG Yongzhong, LI Duoduo, et al. Impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the disease burden of upper respiratory infections in China[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2025,24(6):830-836. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20257071.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-24
  • 出版日期: 2025-06-28