基于德尔菲法的传染病监测预警业务指标体系构建
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R181.8

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国家重点研发计划基金项目(2023YFC2308703)


Construction of operational indicator system for infectious disease monitoring and early warning based on Delphi method
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    摘要:

    目的 构建传染病监测预警业务指标体系,为监测预警提供数据支持与决策依据。方法 通过文献分析和专家访谈初步建立指标框架,运用德尔菲法进行专家咨询,共选取30位专家。根据咨询结果计算指标重要性评分并确定权重。结果 两轮专家咨询问卷回收率均为100%,第1轮和第2轮专家权威系数分别为0.87、0.88;肯德尔和谐系数为0.137~0.424,差异均具有统计学意义(均P<0.001),各项指标变异系数均<0.25,表明专家意见趋于一致,结果权威可靠。最终构建的指标体系包含4个一级指标,25个二级指标,68个三级指标。结论 本研究构建的传染病监测预警业务指标体系,可为传染病监测预警实践及相关科学决策提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct an operational indicator system for infectious disease monitoring and early warning, and provide data support and decision-making basis for monitoring and early warning. Methods A preli-minary indicator framework was constructed through literature analysis and expert interviews, and expert consultation was conducted using the Delphi method. A total of 30 experts were selected. The score of the importance of indicators based on the consultation results was calculated, and the weight was determined. Results The response rates of expert consultation questionnaires from two rounds were both 100%, with expert authority coefficients (reliability coefficient) being 0.87 and 0.88 for the first and second rounds, respectively. Kendall’s W coefficients ranged from 0.137 to 0.424, with statistically significant differences (all P<0.001). Coefficients of variation for all indicators were <0.25, indicating that expert opinions tend to be consistent and the results were authoritative and reliable. The finally constructed indicator system encompassed 4 first-level, 25 second-level, and 68 third-level indicators. Conclusion The operational indicator system for infectious disease monitoring and early warning developed in this study can provide a basis for the practice of infectious disease monitoring and early warning as well as related scientific decision-making.

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李明,栗圆,张一鸣,等.基于德尔菲法的传染病监测预警业务指标体系构建[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2025,24(7):890-897. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20257188.
LI Ming, LI Yuan, ZHANG Yiming, et al. Construction of operational indicator system for infectious disease monitoring and early warning based on Delphi method[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2025,24(7):890-897. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20257188.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-28
  • 出版日期: 2025-07-28