基于Joinpoint回归模型的福建省某三级甲等肿瘤专科医院术后肺炎发病率趋势分析
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R181.3+2

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福建省科技创新联合资金项目(2024Y95010221)


Trend of incidence of postoperative pneumonia in a tertiary first-class cancer hospital in Fujian Province: an analysis based on Joinpoint regre-ssion model
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    摘要:

    目的 分析2018—2023年福建省某三级甲等肿瘤专科医院术后肺炎(POP)监测数据的时间变化趋势,为医院感染防控措施实施效果提供参考依据。方法 应用Joinpoint回归模型分析该院2018—2023年肿瘤患者POP监测数据的时间变化趋势,并计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。结果 2018—2023年,该院全院肿瘤及不同肿瘤患者POP发病率分别为:全院3.46%,肺癌4.77%,食管癌18.16%,胃癌11.50%,肠癌4.66%,妇科肿瘤0.85%,肝胆胰肿瘤3.74%,头颈肿瘤0.46%。2018—2023年,全院肿瘤患者POP发病率从5.47%降至1.73%,肺癌POP发病率从12.23%降至2.60%,胃癌POP发病率从14.93%降至3.73%,肠癌POP发病率从4.40%降至2.09%。Joinpoint回归模型分析显示,2018—2023年全院肿瘤患者POP发病率AAPC为-19.78%,肺癌、胃癌、肠癌AAPC分别为-23.69%、-27.30%、-19.40%。全院肿瘤、肺癌、胃癌和肠癌POP发病率均呈下降趋势,且差异均具有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。按年龄分,≤60岁组AAPC为-22.02%,>60岁组AAPC为-20.48%,两组趋势均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。按性别分,男性组AAPC为-16.56%,女性组为-28.35%,两组趋势均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。2018—2023年,肿瘤患者POP病原菌构成中,肺炎克雷伯菌呈明显上升趋势,AAPC为6.92%,且差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 该院部分肿瘤患者POP发病率呈显著下降趋势,表明医院感染防控措施有效,但仍需重点加强围术期全过程精细化管理。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the temporal changing trend of postoperative pneumonia (POP) monitoring data in a tertiary first-class cancer hospital in Fujian Province from 2018 to 2023, and provide reference for the effectiveness of implementation of healthcare-associated infection (HAI) prevention and control measures. Methods The temporal changing trend of POP monitoring data of cancer patients in this hospital from 2018 to 2023 was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated. Results From 2018 to 2023, the POP incidences of all cancer patients and patients with different tumors in this hospital were as follows: 3.46% in all cancer patients, 4.77%, 18.16%, 11.50%, 4.66%, 0.85%, 3.74%, and 0.46% in patients with lung cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, intestinal cancer, gynecological tumors, hepatobiliary-pancreatic tumor, as well as head and neck tumors, respectively. From 2018 to 2023, the POP incidence of all can-cer patients in the hospital decreased from 5.47% to 1.73%, and POP incidences of patients with lung cancer, gastric cancer, and intestinal cancer decreased from 12.23%, 14.93%, and 4.40% to 2.60%, 3.73%, and 2.09%, respectively. Joinpoint regression model analysis showed that from 2018 to 2023, the AAPC of POP incidence of all cancer patients in the hospital was -19.78%, and the AAPCs of patients with lung cancer, gastric cancer, and intestinal cancer were -23.69%, -27.30%, and -19.40%, respectively. The incidences of POP in all cancer patients, as well as patients with lung cancer, gastric cancer, and intestinal cancer all showed downward trends, and the differences were all statistically significant (all P<0.05). According to age, the AAPCs of the ≤60 and >60 year old groups were -22.02% and -20.48%, respectively, both groups showed statistically significant difference in trends (both P<0.05). In terms of gender, the AAPCs of the male and female groups were -16.56% and -28.35%, respectively, both groups showed statistically significant difference in trends (both P<0.05). From 2018 to 2023, Klebsiella pneumoniae showed a significant upward trend in the constituent of POP pathogens in cancer patients, with an AAPC of 6.92%, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). Conclusion The incidences of POP in some cancer patients in the hospital present significant downward trends, indicating that HAI infection prevention and control measures are effective, but it is still necessary to strengthen the meticulous management of the whole perioperative process.

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赖凌宇,黎事伦,周翠云,等.基于Joinpoint回归模型的福建省某三级甲等肿瘤专科医院术后肺炎发病率趋势分析[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2025,24(11):1619-1626. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20252420.
LAI Lingyu, LI Shilun, ZHOU Cuiyun, et al. Trend of incidence of postoperative pneumonia in a tertiary first-class cancer hospital in Fujian Province: an analysis based on Joinpoint regre-ssion model[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2025,24(11):1619-1626. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20252420.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-29
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