手术部位感染风险预测模型的构建及其在围术期感染防控中的应用效果研究
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R181.3+2

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江苏省医院协会医院管理创新研究课题(JSYGY-3-2024-302);苏州大学附属第二医院医院感染管理专项基金(SDFEYGR2263)


Construction of surgical site infection risk prediction model and its application effect in perioperative infection prevention and control
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    摘要:

    目的 探讨某三级综合医院构建手术部位感染(SSI)预测模型在围术期感染防控管理中的应用效果。方法 采用两阶段研究设计。第一阶段(回顾性建模):纳入2019年1月—2022年12月接受手术的50 021例住院患者,构建SSI风险预测模型。第二阶段(前瞻性干预评价):将2023年1—12月接受手术的49 260例患者作为干预前组,2024年1—12月接受手术的56 463例患者作为干预后组,评估围术期感染防控干预效果。对干预前后SSI相关指标进行统计分析。结果 建模组50 021例中,SSI发病率为0.48%(242例)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,手术时长≥60 min、术前住院日数≥7 d、切口类型(Ⅱ类、Ⅲ类)、ASA分级(Ⅲ/Ⅳ级)、术前外周血白细胞计数>10×109/L均是SSI的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。该预测模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)为0.783(95%CI:0.712~0.854),预测效能显著优于任一单一变量。干预后总SSI发病率及择期手术、Ⅲ类切口、年龄≥60岁患者的SSI发病率均低于干预前,差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。干预后术前住院日数、术前0.5~1 h使用抗菌药物、术前外科洗手、术中保温、术后换药无菌操作、物体表面清洁消毒的合格率均高于干预前,差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论 应用预测模型能早期识别高风险手术患者,提高核心感染防控措施执行率,有效降低SSI发病率。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the application effect of constructing a surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model in perioperative infection prevention and control management in a tertiary general hospital. Methods A two-stage research design was adopted. Stage 1 (retrospectively constructing model): 50 021 hospitalized patients who underwent surgery from January 2019 to December 2022 were included to establish SSI risk prediction model. Stage 2 (prospectively evaluating intervention): 49 260 patients who underwent surgery from January to December 2023 were selected as the pre-intervention group, and 56 463 patients who underwent surgery from January to December 2024 were selected as the post-intervention group, effect of perioperative infection control intervention was evaluated. Statistical analysis of SSI relevant indicators before and after intervention was conducted. Results Among 50 021 cases in the modeling group, the incidence of SSI was 0.48% (n=242). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that surgical duration ≥60 minutes, preoperative length of hospital stay ≥7 days, incision type (class II, III), ASA grading (class III/IV), and preoperative peripheral white blood cell count>10×109/L were all independent risk factors for SSI (all P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of this prediction model was 0.783 (95%CI: 0.712-0.854), and its predictive performance was significantly better than any single variable. After the intervention, the overall SSI incidence and SSI incidence of patients with selective surgery, class III incision, and aged≥ 60 years were all lower than those before the intervention, differences were all statistically significant (all P<0.05). The qualified rates of preoperative hospitalization days, 0.5-1 hours preoperative antimicrobial administration, preoperative hand-washing, intraoperative heat preservation, sterile operation of postoperative dressing change, as well as object surface cleaning and disinfection after intervention were all higher than those before intervention, and the differences were all statistically significant (all P<0.05). Conclusion The application of prediction model can identify high-risk surgical patients early, improve the implementation rate of core infection control measures, and effectively reduce the incidence of SSI.

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谭凤玲,李月娟,张蓓,等.手术部位感染风险预测模型的构建及其在围术期感染防控中的应用效果研究[J]. 中国感染控制杂志,2026,25(5):682-690. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20263169.
TAN Fengling, LI Yuejuan, ZHANG Bei, et al. Construction of surgical site infection risk prediction model and its application effect in perioperative infection prevention and control[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2026,25(5):682-690. DOI:10.12138/j. issn.1671-9638.20263169.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-30
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-29
  • 出版日期: 2026-05-28