Establishment and validation of risk prediction scoring model for catheterassociated urinary tract infection in elderly patients
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R181.3+2

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    Abstract:

    ObjectiveTo establish a risk prediction scoring model for catheterassociated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) in elderly patients, provide evidence for screening highrisk population, and effectively prevent and control urinary tract infection in elderly patients.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted to collect medical data of elderly patients with indwelling urinary catheters during hospitalization between January 1, 2015 and November 30, 2017 (data from 2015 to 2016 was as modeling group, in 2017 as validation group), logistic regression model was constructed to analyze risk factors, according to OR value, the corresponding point of each risk factor was scored, an infection risk scoring model was established, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate prediction effect of model. According to the established infection risk scoring model, patients in validation group were scored, ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model.ResultsLogistic regression analysis showed that age (≥80 years), renal dysfunction, combined use of antimicrobial agents, days of special antimicrobial use (≥15 days), length of postoperative hospital stay (≥15 days), duration of indewlling catheter (≥7 days) were independent risk factors for CAUTI in elderly patients, the corresponding points in the risk scoring model were 3, 3, 3, 5, 7, and 9 respectively. Score>15 points was highrisk group, the area under the curve(AUC) of scoring model was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.90-0.93, P<0.05), sensitivity and specificity were 84.8% and  85.3% respectively. ROC curve was drawn according to the risk score of validation group, AUC was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95, P<0.05), sensitivity and specificity were 84.7% and 86.6% respectively. ConclusionThe established risk scoring model has good discriminatory validity for both modeling group and validation group, and can be used in the identification of susceptible highrisk population for CAUTI in elderly patients, so as to achieve early prevention and control.

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魏楠,王力红,赵霞,等.老年患者导尿管相关尿路感染风险预测评分模型构建与验证[J].中国感染控制杂志英文版,2018,17(10):907-912. DOI:10.3969/j. issn.1671-9638.2018.10.010.
WEI Nan, WANG Lihong, ZHAO Xia, et al. Establishment and validation of risk prediction scoring model for catheterassociated urinary tract infection in elderly patients[J]. Chin J Infect Control, 2018,17(10):907-912. DOI:10.3969/j. issn.1671-9638.2018.10.010.

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History
  • Received:February 02,2018
  • Revised:April 02,2018
  • Adopted:
  • Online: October 28,2018
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