Abstract:Objective To meet the clinical need for dynamic monitoring on lactate metabolism in septic shock patients, a time-series prediction model based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) network was developed to predict 24-hour lactate clearance rate at admission. Methods A multi-stage retrospective cohort design was adopted to enroll septic shock patients admitted to the department of critical care medicine of a hospital from January 2018 to September 2024. By conducting univariate analysis and LASSO combined feature screening, predictive factors were extracted from multidimensional clinical data. An end-to-end LSTM framework (two-layer 64/32 units, dropout rate=0.3) was constructed. A sliding window strategy (six-hour step size) was adopted for dynamic prediction and compared with traditional logistic model in terms of three dimensions: calibration (Brier score), discrimination (area under the curve [AUC] of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic [ROC]), and clinical practicality (decision curve analysis). Consistency between model prediction result and actual lactate clearance rate was analyzed, and the accuracy of prediction was evaluated. Results A total of 112 septic shock patients were enrolled in the analysis, including 65 males and 47 females, with an average age of (67.35±7.28) years. 65 patients were assigned in the lactate good clearance rate group (lactate good clearance rate ≥10%) and 47 in the lactate poor clearance rate group (lactate good clearance rate <10%); 78 patients were in the training set and 34 in the validation set. Time-depen-dent AUC analysis revealed that the predictive performance of the LSTM model in the time windows of 6, 12, and 24 hours were 0.89 (0.85-0.93), 0.91 (0.88-0.95), and 0.92 (0.89-0.96), respectively, superior to the logistic regression model (ΔAUC=0.085, P<0.01). The core predictive factors included APACHE Ⅱ score (OR=1.38), lactate level at admission (OR=1.65), vasoactive drug dosage (OR=1.42), and 6-hour fluid resuscitation dosage (OR=1.35). The Pearson correlation coefficient between the predicted value of the model and the actual 24-hour lactate clearance rate was 0.83 (P<0.001), with an average absolute error of 8.2%. Decision curve analysis confirmed that when the threshold probability was 15%-60%, the LSTM model could increase clinical net benefits by 27.3%. The validation of each subgroup showed that the model maintained the optimal predictive performance (AUC=0.87) in the lung infection subgroup (n=16). Conclusion The LSTM-based dynamic prediction model for predicting 24-hour lactate clearance rate through integrating early admission indicators demonstrates excellent predictive performance and clinical application value, which can provide important reference for individualized treatment decisions in septic shock patients.